A Whole New Dynamic

Whew... aren't you glad it's over?

In an election year, that's normally our nation's sigh of relief right around the second week of November. After the long haul of the presidential race, most Americans return their attention to issues that deserve it more, like football, celebrity news, and American Idol.

This time around, we're saying it in June. This time around is a lot different.

On June 3rd, Barack Obama clinched the Democratic nomination by securing enough delegates in the Montana and South Dakota primaries to score a clear majority, ending Hillary Clinton's equally historic bid for the White House in the process. In addition, John McCain, who has been the presumptive GOP nominee for months, released figures for May indicating he had $31.5 million on hand to battle Barack Obama through the summer and into the fall.

Finally, the process of picking our candidates has come to a conclusion. Now it's time to pick between them! Once America recovers its collective breath, that is. This year has tested the average American stomach for politics, and I would have to say that we have responded admirably.

Already the political analysts and pundits have begun hedging bets on who will win what state, and plugging those estimates into a national view. Who will win the magical 270? Most of the analysts agree that the election maps of 2000 and 2004 will repeat themselves again, though there are a fresh crop of swing states.

I don't agree.

This year's election season provides two candidates that pack so much more punch than Bush, Gore, or Kerry combined. Obama's rock start speeches and McCain's one-liners and feisty temper have excited the nation far and away more than Kerry's stuffy New England aura, Gore's awkward speech attempts, and Bush's folksy Texan manner.

In addition, each candidate has the ability to draw different constituencies. Obama can draw blacks, intellectuals, and liberals in record numbers without eroding the Democratic base. McCain can whittle away at the middle of the American political spectrum and entice older voters and blue-collar workers, albeit at the expense of some of the evangelical and socially conservative right.

These major differences have set the stage for some dramatic shifts in the way the electoral map has looked so far in the 21st century.

Who's Blue?: New York, California, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, Illinois, Vermont, Rhode Island, Connecticut, Maryland, Washington D.C., Hawaii, Massachusetts, Vermont.

Who's Red?: Wyoming, Utah, Arizona, Oklahoma, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Tennessee, Kentucky, Indiana, West Virginia, New Hampshire.

Here's where the map shouldn't change much. New York and California are Democratic strongholds, as is New England. Look for the West Coast to develop into stronger Democratic areas as each state becomes more affluent and educated. In addition, Obama is from Illinois and should win there convincingly. McCain will draw from traditional Republican strongholds in the West and the South, and will pick up a large part of Appalachia without having to campaign there too much.

Who's Probably Blue?: Iowa, Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey.

Who's Probably Red?: Louisiana, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Dakota, South Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Idaho, Montana.

A lot of states are leaning red at this point, but it will take a lot of work to lock them up. Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are the big ones on here, and all are battlegrounds that are leaning right because of McCain's ability to draw older voters and blue-collar workers. However, most of these states are still battlegrounds for McCain, even if the fight isn't uphill. Expect Obama to proclaim his campaign's birthright in Iowa, and draw the large intellectual and black populations of Virginia.

Tipping Point: Alaska, Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Maine.

Most of these states have traditionally voted Republican, but I think most of them will tilt towards the Democrats. Alaska, Maine, and Colorado will experience a great deal of Obama's grassroots campaigning. New Mexico is a battleground, but popular governor Bill Richardson could bring things blue, just like Kansas governor Kathleen Sebelius could for Kansas (especially if one of them gets the VP nod). Arkansas could go blue if the Clinton's decide they want it to, and North Carolina has such a large black population that it's hard to tell where it will land.

In my summation, this is currently John McCain's election to win, about 276-262. However, that is a really close pick, and I think Obama has a better chance at winning as the underdog. Essentially, I think it's McCain's election to lose, and I think he will.