Electoral Fun

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/interactives/campaign08/electoral-college/

Such an interesting activity! Determine which states will be Obama's this year, which one's will be McCain's, and which ones will be swing states. I have spent some considerable time on this website, and I definitely think this election is going to be a close one. I know it's really far off, but I like to offer predictions so I can laugh at my foolish self months from now. Feel free to laugh along!

Alabama: Obama (+9)
Alaska: Obama (+3)
Arizona: McCain (+10)
Arkansas: Swing (+6)
California: Obama (+55)
Colorado: McCain (+9)
Connecticut: Obama (+7)
Delaware: Obama (+3)
Florida: McCain (+27)
Georgia: Obama (+15)
Hawaii: Obama (+4)
Idaho: McCain (+4)
Illinois: Obama (+21)
Indiana: McCain (+11)
Iowa: Obama (+7)
Kansas: Swing (+6)
Kentucky: McCain (+8)
Louisiana: Swing (+9)
Maine: Obama (+1) McCain (+1) Swing (+2)
Maryland: Obama (+10)
Massachusetts: Obama (+12)
Michigan: McCain (+17)
Minnesota: Obama (+10)
Missouri: McCain (+11)
Montana: McCain (+3)
Nebraska: Obama (+1) McCain (+3)
Nevada: McCain (+5)
New Hampshire: McCain (+4)
New Jersey: Swing (+15)
New Mexico: Swing (+5)
New York: Obama (+31)
North Carolina: Obama (+15)
North Dakota: McCain (+3)
Ohio: McCain (+20)
Oklahoma: McCain (+7)
Oregon: Obama (+7)
Pennsylvania: McCain (+21)
Rhode Island: Obama (+4)
South Carolina: Obama (+8)
South Dakota: McCain (+3)
Tennessee: McCain (+11)
Texas: McCain (+34)
Utah: McCain (+5)
Vermont: Obama (+3)
Virginia: Obama (+13)
Washington: Obama (+11)
Washington DC: Obama (+3)
West Virginia: McCain (+5)
Wisconsin: Swing (+10)
Wyoming: McCain (+3)

Obama: 253 McCain: 225 Swing: 60
(Need 270 to elect)

Whew, that was exhausting!

You see, I think that most political commentators have a huge problem with evaluating the prospects for this election based on past red/blue lines. In case you have noticed, Obama makes Kerry look like a stuffy, whiny, blue-blood and McCain makes Bush look like... look like... an idiot.

In addition, the Democrats have a more aggressive pick geographically. In 2004, the Democrats selected a weak candidate from a strong constituency for the weaker party while the Republicans selected a strong candidate from a strong constituency for the stronger party. At the end of the day, the red half of the pie was bigger than the blue half. Oops!

Obama is a strong candidate from a contentious area while McCain is a strong candidate from a Republican stronghold in the Sun Belt. The parties are too close when it comes to vying for attention. McCain may end up being the right candidate from the wrong state. Or the Democrats could overstep their gains from Bush's unpopularity by moving too far from the coasts. Food for thought.

Other thoughts... the "solid South" is now a myth. With Obama, the Democrats have a chance to secure ALL of the black vote in the states from Louisiana right on up through Maryland. That puts McCain way off balance in the "solid South," as he now has to win a huge majority of white voters who only account for 65%-80% of the populations in those states.

Expect Obama to seal up the coasts, particularly the West Coast. While McCain has an opening in California thanks to names like Reagan and Schwarzenegger, don't expect him to be able to follow up on it. And outside of New Hampshire (which loves him) and Maine (which follows New Hampshire), don't expect McCain to sweat it out for New England. The land of liberals will choose one of their own. Also, the libertarian element may work against McCain in New Hampshire if Rep. Bob Barr's candidacy can gain any third party momentum (watch out for this in the West too).

McCain is well-positioned politically to wrest the old swing states from contention. He'll have to fight, but he should win states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Michigan because he's an effective communicator, will be able to position himself as a champion of rust belt cities, and he's white. Nowadays the North is more racist than the South. He should also reign in Appalachia, claiming West Virginia, Kentucky, and Tennessee. In addition, McCain should also capture most of those big square states between the Mississippi and California. Except Iowa. Iowa doesn't really like McCain (3rd in the primary) while it was Iowa that essentially gave birth to the Obama-nomenon (there's a mouthful!).

Naturally, Obama can forget about Arizona, and McCain can forget about Illinois. However, Obama could definitely angle for New Mexico with Gov. Bill Richardson in his corner. In addition, Obama may have a chance at traditionally red Kansas with the strong support of Gov. Kathleen Sebelius.

Arkansas will be a question mark decided in the next few months. Will the Clinton's devote their energies to a Democratic victory after she concedes the nomination? Or will the Clinton's politely duck out without campaigning on behalf of Obama? Clinton support, if applied correctly, could swing Arkansas blue, as well as chip away at the popular vote in several other states. However, it could also screw Obama over. Also, I think it would be political suicide for Obama if he picked Clinton for his Vice President candidate. Don't do it B!

Obama will also set up powerful bases in the intellectual states. Brainy Virginia, Minnesota, and Oregon should be exuberantly blue this fall. Hawaii will chill on his side of the aisle too. Apologies for the bad pun.

I welcome comments, criticism, praise, and insults. Hope to hear from you soon!

Thanks,

The Conscientious Observer

"God looks at the clean hands, not the full ones." -- Publilius Syrus